2000

CROUCHING TIGER,HIDDEN DRAGON, CASTAWAY, GLADIATOR, POLLACK, HIGH FIDELITY, TRAFFIC, X-MAN, THE CONTENDER, UNBREAKABLE, U571, WONDER BOYS,CHICKEN RUN, BEST IN SHOW, ERIN BROCKOVICH, CHOCOLAT, AMERICAN PSYCHO, ALMOST FAMOUS, QUILLS, THE PATRIOT,

2001

THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS, AI ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, GOSFORD PARK, TRAINING DAY, LORD OF THE RINGS-FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING, BLACK HAWK DOWN, MULHOLLAND DRIVE, MONSTERS INC., AMELIE, DONNIE DARKO, SEXY BEAST, GHOST WORLD, OCEANS 11, MEMENTO, SHREK

2002

25TH HOUR, MINORITY REPORT, THE BOURNE IDENTITY, THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS, ADAPTATION, ROAD TO PERDITION, CATCH ME IF YOU CAN, BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE, ABOUT A BOY, THE PIANIST, ABOUT SCHMIDT, THE HOURS,

2003

THE STATION AGENT, LORD OF THE RINGS-RETURN OF THE KING, FINDING NEMO, A MIGHTY WIND,LOST IN TRANSLATION. SEABISCUIT, COLD MOUNTAIN, SPIDERMAN, THE FOG OF WAR, AMERICAN SPLENDOR, KILL BILL VOL.1, ELF, 21 GRAMS,THE LIFE OF DAVID GALE, MYSTIC RIVER, CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS,

2004

HOTEL RWANDA, THE INCREDIBLES, NAPOLEAN DYNAMITE, RAY, ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF A SPOTLESS MIND, FINDING NEVERLAND, MILLION DOLLAR BABY, SHAUN OF THE DEAD, SIDEWAYS, SPIDERMAN 2, BORN INTO BROTHELS,KINSEY,THE LIFE AQUATIC WITH STEVE ZISSOU

2005

THE 40-YEAR-OLD VIRGIN, GRIZZLY MAN, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, CRASH, SYRIANA, MUNICH, MILLIONS, CINDERELLA MAN, A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE, MURDERBALL,THE SQUID AND THE WHALE, MARCH OF THE PENGUINS, CAPOTE,

2006

PAN’S LABYRINTH, CHILDREN OF MEN, THE DEPARTED, DREAMGIRLS, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA/FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS, UNITED 93, THE QUEEN, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, INLAND EMPIRE, FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION, AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH, CASINO ROYALE, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND,HOLLYWOODLAND, CHARLOTTES WEB,

2007

ZODIAC, THERE WILL BE BLOOD, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, RATATOUILLE, THE LIVES OF OTHERS, DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY, ONCE, THE HOST, MICHAEL CLAYTON, SWEENEY TODD, PERSEPOLIS, GONE BABY GONE, JUNO, EASTERN PROMISES, THE NAMESAKE, SUPERBAD,

2008

THE DARK KNIGHT, WALL-E, THE WRESTLER, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, MILK, DOUBT,  THE READER, SYNEDOCHE NEW YORK, MAN ON WIRE, RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, IRONMAN, HAPPY GO LUCKY,THE COUNTERFEITERS, THE VISITOR, FROZEN RIVER,FROST/NIXON

2009

THE LOVELY BONES,NINE, UP, THE MEN WHO STARE AT GOATS, THE HURT LOCKER, PRECIOUS, AVATAR, UP IN THE AIR, PIRATE RADIO, PARANORMAL, ROLE MODELS, THE WATCHMEN, THE ROAD, STAR TREK,INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, MOON, SUGAR, ANVIL-THE STORY OF ANVIL, FUNNY PEOPLE, DISTRICT 9, A SERIOUS MAN,

Oscar hits the red carpet with unidentified "close" friend.

1. Best Picture: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Milk,” “The Reader,” “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Will win: Slumdog Millionaire   Should win: Slumdog Millionaire.

3. Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”; Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”; Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”; Meryl Streep, “Doubt”; Kate Winslet, “The Reader.”

Will win: Kate Winslet    Should win: Anne Hathaway

4. Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin, “Milk”; Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”; Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”; Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”; Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road.”

Will win: Heath Ledger    Should win: Heath Ledger

5. Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “Doubt”; Penélope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”; Viola Davis, “Doubt”; Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler.”

Will win: Penelope Cruz    Should win: Marisa Tomei or Viola Davis

6. Director: David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”; Gus Van Sant, “Milk”; Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”; Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Will win: Danny Boyle       Should win: Danny Boyle

7. Foreign Film: “The Baader Meinhof Complex,” Germany; “The Class,” France; “Departures,” Japan; “Revanche,” Austria; “Waltz With Bashir,” Israel.

Will win: Waltz With Bashir     Should win: Waltz With Bashir

8. Adapted Screenplay: Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt”; Peter Morgan, “Frost/Nixon”; David Hare, “The Reader”; Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Will win: Peter Morgan    Should win: John Patrick Shanley

9. Original Screenplay: Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”; Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”; Martin McDonagh, “In Bruges”; Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”; Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter, “WALL-E.”

Will win: Dustin Lance Black for Milk        Should win: Martin McDonagh for In Bruges

10. Animated Feature Film: “Bolt”; “Kung Fu Panda”; “WALL-E.”

Will and Should Win: Wall-E    And by the way, the people who feel Wall-E should have been up for Best Picture are annoying.

11. Art Direction: “Changeling,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “The Dark Knight,” “The Duchess,” “Revolutionary Road.”

Will and Should Win is The Dark Knight.

12. Cinematography: “Changeling,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “The Dark Knight,” “The Reader,” “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Will win and Should win is Slumdog Millionaire.  The cinematography was in many ways the star of this movie.

13. Original Song: “Down to Earth” from “WALL-E,” Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman; “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire,” A.R. Rahman and Gulzar; “O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire,” A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam.

Don’t know…don’t care.    Should win (but wasn’t even nominated) was The Wrestler, by Bruce Springsteen. It was a song written for his friend, Mickey Rourke. Music played a big part in this powerful film and it’s hard to understand how this song was overlooked.

Let’s see how we do, come Sunday night.

The Academy Award Nominations were announced early this morning.  There were some minor surprises among those nominated and those that weren’t, but all in all it should be a pretty interesting award show.

Here are some of the major categories and a few of my thoughts on who might win.

BEST PICTURE
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
FROST/NIXON
MILK
THE READER
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

I really believe that Slumdog Millionaire will win the big prize.  Golden Globe momentum and some terrific word of mouth make this a big favorite.  The Reader and Frost/Nixon don’t have a chance.  Benjamin Button surprises me that it’s here. The screenwriter for Button was the same one who wrote Forrest Gump.  That explains why I found them so similar.  I think The Dark Knight should have been there instead. Milk is a wild card, but doesn’t have Slumdog’s vibrant appeal.

BEST DIRECTOR
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – David Fincher
FROST/NIXON – Ron Howard
MILK – Gus Van Sant
THE READER – Stephen Daldry
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE – Danny Boyle

I really think Danny Boyle will win Best Director.  The lack of leads in any of Slumdog’s acting categories lets you know who the academy considers the star. It’s Mumbai and the man who put this carnival together.  I wish Gus Van Sant could win because it would inspire him to make more movies like this…and Good Will Hunting, and less like My Own Private Idaho and remakes like Psycho.  Ron Howard did an excellent job converting a stage play to a movie. That he made this interesting is also an achievement. Personally I think Darren Aronofsky should be recognized for his move The Wrestler.  Lets see what kind of performance Mickey gives his next director.

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins for THE VISITOR
Frank Langella for FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn for MILK
Brad Pitt for THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Mickey Rourke for THE WRESTLER

Mickey Rourke was the only person with a Screen Actors Guild membership card who could have played Randy “The Ram” Robinson.  He’s done some trash talking about his only competitor in this category, Sean Penn as Harvey Milk.  Richard Jenkins is a character actor you’ve seen tons of times but didn’t know his name. (dead dad on Six Feet Under, for example). I know nothing about his movie but I do know that if he weren’t here…Clint Eastwood would be.

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway for RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Angelina Jolie for CHANGELING
Melissa Leo for FROZEN RIVER
Meryl Streep for DOUBT
Kate Winslet for THE READER

Anne Hathaway should have won the Golden Globe  but Kate Winslet has been enjoying some love since the Golden Globes (despite her rambling and hysterical acceptance speech).  I think she’s been nominated quite a number of times and so this is going to put that streak to bed.   Melissa Leo is from a movie very few people have seen. (I haven’t seen her since she played a detective on Homicide back in the mid 90′s).  It sometimes feels like these obscure little movies are afforded a prerequisite spot amongthe more familiar nominees. That Happy Go Lucky actress will have to settle for her Golden Globe.

Meryl Streep, I think between Doubt and Mama Mia’, it’s hard to imagine a more ham-handed pair of performances in one year.  (Cuba Gooding comes close).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin for MILK
Robert Downey Jr. for TROPIC THUNDER
Philip Seymour Hoffman for DOUBT
Heath Ledger for THE DARK KNIGHT
Michael Shannon for REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

It was a year ago yesterday that we learned Heath Ledger had died. The movie had not yet been released and there was talk of him winning this award posthumously.  Josh Brolin had a great year and had two great performances (he as W. in W.) It’s a shame he doesn’t win something. Downey Jr.’s nomination makes no sense.  This is more an MTV award nomination.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman could do a live action Mister Magoo and score a nomination.  Synecdoche, New York  was as hard to understand as it is to pronounce.  He’s still not going to win here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams for DOUBT
Penelope Cruz for VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis for DOUBT
Tarija P. Henson for THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Marisa Tomei for THE WRESTLER

I think it’s between these two.  Viola Davis and Marisa Tomei. Amy Adams and Penelope Cruz were legitimate nominees, but I think Viola and Marisa are in a different league.

One thing that I really don’t understand is how Springsteen’s ode to The Wrestler, written as a favor for his friend Mickey, failed to get a best song nomination.  Revolutionary Road had only one acting nomination and it’s for a supporting actor no one has heard of.  Not a good year for Leo DiCaprio or Sam Mendes.   A few people are surprised that the Dark Knight and Wall-E failed to get more love.  Sometimes we just have to settle for huge box-office.