Oscar hits the red carpet with unidentified "close" friend.

1. Best Picture: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Milk,” “The Reader,” “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Will win: Slumdog Millionaire   Should win: Slumdog Millionaire.

3. Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”; Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”; Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”; Meryl Streep, “Doubt”; Kate Winslet, “The Reader.”

Will win: Kate Winslet    Should win: Anne Hathaway

4. Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin, “Milk”; Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”; Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”; Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”; Michael Shannon, “Revolutionary Road.”

Will win: Heath Ledger    Should win: Heath Ledger

5. Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “Doubt”; Penélope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”; Viola Davis, “Doubt”; Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler.”

Will win: Penelope Cruz    Should win: Marisa Tomei or Viola Davis

6. Director: David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”; Gus Van Sant, “Milk”; Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”; Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Will win: Danny Boyle       Should win: Danny Boyle

7. Foreign Film: “The Baader Meinhof Complex,” Germany; “The Class,” France; “Departures,” Japan; “Revanche,” Austria; “Waltz With Bashir,” Israel.

Will win: Waltz With Bashir     Should win: Waltz With Bashir

8. Adapted Screenplay: Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”; John Patrick Shanley, “Doubt”; Peter Morgan, “Frost/Nixon”; David Hare, “The Reader”; Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Will win: Peter Morgan    Should win: John Patrick Shanley

9. Original Screenplay: Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”; Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”; Martin McDonagh, “In Bruges”; Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”; Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter, “WALL-E.”

Will win: Dustin Lance Black for Milk        Should win: Martin McDonagh for In Bruges

10. Animated Feature Film: “Bolt”; “Kung Fu Panda”; “WALL-E.”

Will and Should Win: Wall-E    And by the way, the people who feel Wall-E should have been up for Best Picture are annoying.

11. Art Direction: “Changeling,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “The Dark Knight,” “The Duchess,” “Revolutionary Road.”

Will and Should Win is The Dark Knight.

12. Cinematography: “Changeling,” “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “The Dark Knight,” “The Reader,” “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Will win and Should win is Slumdog Millionaire.  The cinematography was in many ways the star of this movie.

13. Original Song: “Down to Earth” from “WALL-E,” Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman; “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire,” A.R. Rahman and Gulzar; “O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire,” A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam.

Don’t know…don’t care.    Should win (but wasn’t even nominated) was The Wrestler, by Bruce Springsteen. It was a song written for his friend, Mickey Rourke. Music played a big part in this powerful film and it’s hard to understand how this song was overlooked.

Let’s see how we do, come Sunday night.

The Academy Award Nominations were announced early this morning.  There were some minor surprises among those nominated and those that weren’t, but all in all it should be a pretty interesting award show.

Here are some of the major categories and a few of my thoughts on who might win.

BEST PICTURE
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
FROST/NIXON
MILK
THE READER
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

I really believe that Slumdog Millionaire will win the big prize.  Golden Globe momentum and some terrific word of mouth make this a big favorite.  The Reader and Frost/Nixon don’t have a chance.  Benjamin Button surprises me that it’s here. The screenwriter for Button was the same one who wrote Forrest Gump.  That explains why I found them so similar.  I think The Dark Knight should have been there instead. Milk is a wild card, but doesn’t have Slumdog’s vibrant appeal.

BEST DIRECTOR
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON – David Fincher
FROST/NIXON – Ron Howard
MILK – Gus Van Sant
THE READER – Stephen Daldry
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE – Danny Boyle

I really think Danny Boyle will win Best Director.  The lack of leads in any of Slumdog’s acting categories lets you know who the academy considers the star. It’s Mumbai and the man who put this carnival together.  I wish Gus Van Sant could win because it would inspire him to make more movies like this…and Good Will Hunting, and less like My Own Private Idaho and remakes like Psycho.  Ron Howard did an excellent job converting a stage play to a movie. That he made this interesting is also an achievement. Personally I think Darren Aronofsky should be recognized for his move The Wrestler.  Lets see what kind of performance Mickey gives his next director.

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins for THE VISITOR
Frank Langella for FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn for MILK
Brad Pitt for THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Mickey Rourke for THE WRESTLER

Mickey Rourke was the only person with a Screen Actors Guild membership card who could have played Randy “The Ram” Robinson.  He’s done some trash talking about his only competitor in this category, Sean Penn as Harvey Milk.  Richard Jenkins is a character actor you’ve seen tons of times but didn’t know his name. (dead dad on Six Feet Under, for example). I know nothing about his movie but I do know that if he weren’t here…Clint Eastwood would be.

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway for RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Angelina Jolie for CHANGELING
Melissa Leo for FROZEN RIVER
Meryl Streep for DOUBT
Kate Winslet for THE READER

Anne Hathaway should have won the Golden Globe  but Kate Winslet has been enjoying some love since the Golden Globes (despite her rambling and hysterical acceptance speech).  I think she’s been nominated quite a number of times and so this is going to put that streak to bed.   Melissa Leo is from a movie very few people have seen. (I haven’t seen her since she played a detective on Homicide back in the mid 90’s).  It sometimes feels like these obscure little movies are afforded a prerequisite spot amongthe more familiar nominees. That Happy Go Lucky actress will have to settle for her Golden Globe.

Meryl Streep, I think between Doubt and Mama Mia’, it’s hard to imagine a more ham-handed pair of performances in one year.  (Cuba Gooding comes close).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin for MILK
Robert Downey Jr. for TROPIC THUNDER
Philip Seymour Hoffman for DOUBT
Heath Ledger for THE DARK KNIGHT
Michael Shannon for REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

It was a year ago yesterday that we learned Heath Ledger had died. The movie had not yet been released and there was talk of him winning this award posthumously.  Josh Brolin had a great year and had two great performances (he as W. in W.) It’s a shame he doesn’t win something. Downey Jr.’s nomination makes no sense.  This is more an MTV award nomination.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman could do a live action Mister Magoo and score a nomination.  Synecdoche, New York  was as hard to understand as it is to pronounce.  He’s still not going to win here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams for DOUBT
Penelope Cruz for VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis for DOUBT
Tarija P. Henson for THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Marisa Tomei for THE WRESTLER

I think it’s between these two.  Viola Davis and Marisa Tomei. Amy Adams and Penelope Cruz were legitimate nominees, but I think Viola and Marisa are in a different league.

One thing that I really don’t understand is how Springsteen’s ode to The Wrestler, written as a favor for his friend Mickey, failed to get a best song nomination.  Revolutionary Road had only one acting nomination and it’s for a supporting actor no one has heard of.  Not a good year for Leo DiCaprio or Sam Mendes.   A few people are surprised that the Dark Knight and Wall-E failed to get more love.  Sometimes we just have to settle for huge box-office.

I won’t bore you with reviews of the nominees but I do want to go on the record with my choices for some of the major awards.  If you have any opinions to the contrary, or agree…you’re certainly welcome to share your thoughts.

Best Mini-Series Or Motion Picture Made for Television

A Raisin in the Sun
Bernard and Doris
Cranford
John Adams
Recount

I’ve seen only two of these, but I feel pretty comfortable that John Adams is going to take this one. If you haven’t seen this HBO historical drama, then get ye to the video store.

Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series – Musical Or Comedy

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Steve Carell, The Office
Kevin Connolly, Entourage
David Duchovny, Californication
Tony Shalhoub, Monk

Alec Baldwin for 30 Rock. This is going to be a big year for 30 Rock and Baldwin is a huge reason why viewers are finally tuning in to what may be television’s funniest show.

Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series – Musical Or Comedy

Christina Applegate, Samantha Who?
America Ferrera, Ugly Betty
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Debra Messing, The Starter Wife
Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds

This has been an amazing year for Tina Fey and a Golden Globe is going to be just one more well-deserved accolade.

TELEVISION SERIES, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

30 Rock
Californication
Entourage
The Office
Weeds

The Office and Entourage are viable,  but the night is going to belong to 30 Rock.

ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES, DRAMA
Gabriel Byrne, In Treatment
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Jonathan Rhys Meyers, The Tudors

I will admit not to being a fan of Mad Men. I was tempted when I heard the creator and lead writers were from the Sopranos, but I just couldn’t get attached.  Dexter is getting some publicity but when all is said and done, this is the foriegn press voting here and they love Hugh Laurie. It’s not that he doesn’t deserve his award, but I think Dexter has the buzz, just not enough to win here.

ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES, DRAMA

Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
January Jones, Mad Men
Anna Paquin, True Blood
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

I know little about any of these shows. My pick is purely out of the blue based on a hunch. Go with the Closer’s Kyra Sedgwich here. Anna Paquin is a wild card here because True Blood is quickly developing some fans.

TELEVISION SERIES, DRAMA

Dexter
House
In Treatment
Mad Men
True Blood

I don’t know that the rest of the world is excited by Mad Men. Maybe I’m underestimating the global appetite, but I think blood is going to be the deciding factor. Vampires or serial killer; I’m going to give the edge to True Blood.  HBO could use the boost.

DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road

Boyle worked with a co-director (Indian director), Loveleen Tanden, to help with an all-Indian cast. Even with the help, there’s no denying the accomplishment here.  I’ll acknowledge that I was disappointed with Benjamin Button and a big part of that is I’m huge fan of David Fincher. This was just not a good story for someone with his abilities.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Want a real sleeper here? Viola Davis. She had less than ten minutes in a movie starring Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Meryl Streep and Amy Adams.  In a film filled with dramatic flourish, Ms Davis provided the most powerful performance.  Marisa Tomei is who I’d like to win.  She’s part of The Wrestler’s underdog popularity and I don’t know anyone who wasn’t impressed with that body.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Heath Ledger will win this and will probably win the Oscar, come Spring.  Sentiment aside, this is the kind of role that defines a career and it’s a shame he couldn’t follow up with something more worthwhile than Terry Gilliams, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus.  As for Tom Cruise, I will admit it was a great cameo but I don’t think he belongs in this category. I don’t see Hoffman’s role as a supporting role either, but it won’t matter anyway.

ACTRESS, COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia!
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey

I haven’t seen Last Chance Harvey but I think I’d have heard some scuttlebutt about Thompson’s performance if there was a chance here.  Sally Hawkins drove people crazy with her perkiness, McDormand was pretty dreary and Meryl Streep sings ABBA.  That leaves Rebecca Hall. She was actually terrific in a very good Woody Allen movie. That would usually do it but again, this is the foriegn press doing the judging.  How can you compete with ABBA?  I think Meryl’s going to dance away with this one.

ACTOR, COMEDY OR Musical
Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
James Franco, Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey

Not a lot of people saw In Bruges. It was a very original movie with more violence than you would expect. It also took place in Europe and this was a pretty popular movie overseas where here it qualified for art house distribution.  With all that said, everone like Bardem and he carries the movie. I think this is going to be the one award that Vicky Cristina Barcelona wins all evening.

BEST MOTION PICTURE, COMEDY
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Mamma Mia has sold a lot of DVD’s overseas. It was a critical hit over there, where over here people were being warned that Pierce Brosnan would be singing.  I really liked Vicky Cristina Barcelona and it was primarily a foriegn film save for the director and his muse,  Scarlett Johansson.  One of the big differences between the Golden Globes and the Oscars is that Mamma Mia coud win this.

ACTRESS, DRAMA
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

These are all very good nominees but I think you have to go with Anne Hathaway here.  I also think that if she wins here, she will draw more attention to Rachel Getting Married, and that will enhance her chances for a big Oscar night.  The foriegn press loves Angelina Jolie and this was a great role for her, but her bright red lips stole the movie and I think that Hathaway has the buzz.

ACTOR, DRAMA
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

This is all about Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke.  I also think it will boil down to these two come Oscar-time as well.  Since this is the Hollywood Forigen Press, I’m going to say Mickey Rourke is going to not only win, but get one of those sentimental, standing ovations.  He’s a come back story that everyone likes to hear about…despite the fact that he was his own worst enemy for many years and primarily the reason he disappeared in the first place. He’s also been talking smack to anyone who will listen about Sean Penn’s performance as Harvey Milk.  This guy needs to just shut up and accept the awards that are coming his way, deservedly so. If you haven’t seen The Wrestler, you should do so soon.  It’s a brutal look at Professional wrestling, but it’s also as gritty a performance as anyone is going to see in a very long time.  (More on this movie in an upcoming post).

BEST MOTION PICTURE, DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Slumdog will win this.  If you haven’t seen this movie, do so soon.  Also, don’t be so quick to leave the theatre. The closing credits are pure Bollywood, and it’s fantastic.  My sense is that this is going to be the big award for Slumdog Millionaire.  The Oscars are going to boil down to Milk and The Wrestler and maybe even Batman, but the Golden Globes are all about entertainment and that’s what Slumdog delivers.